Sunday, July 09, 2006

US Advertising and its effect on tv shows aka 16 Precious minutes


16 PRECIOUS MINUTES
Advertising, Scheduling, and the Idiosyncrasies of the U.S. TV System
by
David Gerhard

The debate as to who invented television has raged for decades, but whether it was Scottish inventor John Logie Baird, or Utah farm boy tinkerer Philo T. Farnsworth, what matters is that whoever did come up with the first TV set resisted the urge to fetch a shotgun and put it out of its misery.
If anyone were to ever write a treatise on history’s greatest mistakes, this could well have been one of them, for what started out as simply an extension of radio, little more than a means of communication and entertainment, has evolved into the gargoyle we know as modern Network Television.
Network TV is a strange beast at best. Often it is a frustrating and mysterious entity which seems to run more by luck than judgment, and which seems to be subject to the whim of some of the strangest thinking and philosophy to be found anywhere in human experience. This is for four reasons; the choice of programming to match perceived viewing habits, unmitigated commercialism, the evolution of the TV "season", and the manipulation of audience figures and ratings.
There is a Season, turn, turn, turn.
Every autumn, you can almost hear a pin drop, as households across the USA await the announcement of new shows for the fall season, the beginning of the TV year. And every year, you can hear the sighs of disappointment, as the same old formulas are trotted out, time after time, with monotonous regularity.
Each new season brings with it its own sense of déjà vu. First, there’s the cop show, but no longer about a single cop and his cronies, like Hunter or T.J.Hooker, now it’s a whole department under the microscope, almost a soap opera if the truth were told.
Then come the sitcoms, but no longer a Mary Tyler Moore, or a Lucy Show. Since the success of first Cheers, then the Golden Girls, and finally, Friends, every sitcom is now an ensemble show. Move the location, change the names, but it’s still seven or eight young friends going about their lives in supposedly funny ways.
And then there are the new Sci-Fi shows, some good, some bad, but basically all the same. Only Babylon 5 appears to have broken the mold, by having the courage to tell a coherent story from beginning to end, holding out the promise of something larger than the sum of its parts, a formula adopted for the last 10 or so episodes of DS9’s final season.
So, we start the season with high hopes, and as the weeks go by, the weak shows fall by the wayside, and the strong ones prosper. But there has not been so much prospering recently. Each year, the proportion of shows that succeed grows smaller, and the day will come when that proportion is so small that we will have virtually nothing new left by the time the year is over.
A Few Initial Words on the Schedules.
If the poor quality of new shows was not bad enough, we then have the vagaries of the scheduling system to cope with. This ensures that just as we become used to a line-up, the networks shuffle all their shows around, in a futile attempt to capture a particular slot, or in some cases, an entire evening. So much for "Must See TV".
And why is it that the one show you like, the only show you thought would survive, runs for seven or eight weeks and then mysteriously disappears, to be replaced by a series on "Doggy Out-Takes" or a sixteen part expose of how magic tricks are done, which in the end leads us to the conclusion that the woman wasn’t really sawn in half. I suspect that most of us knew that in the first place.
Do you remember the old saying "If you don’t want to hear the answer, don’t ask the question?" Well, whether you do or not, if you are happy with your TV and don’t want to be disillusioned, or if it will upset you to learn that the TV networks are not run by beneficent old guys in herringbone sport coats with pink Cadillacs and big cigars, then put this down now and go and watch "America’s Greatest Pets", or whatever has just replaced the show you liked last week.
But first, the basics…
US TV is split into roughly five sections:
PBS (Public Broadcasting Service)
Networks
Network Affiliates
Cable
Satellite
We’ll leave aside digital TV for one simple reason: it won’t catch on here, because it doesn’t use the same system as other TV systems . Whereas in Europe, DTV uses the PAL system, here, it uses its own specific HDTV system, and the cheapest HDTV set on the market at the moment is about $4,000.00. Few can afford that. Anyway, all it offers is the same old crud as the other formats, plus a few special channels (The Poodle Channel, 24 hour Pizza Ordering Channel, The Fireplace Channel [this actually does exist – it’s just a 24 hour picture of a blazing fireplace – all the charm of a fireplace in your room without the ashes and smoke], Aunt Maggy Knits a Scarf Channel – sorry I’m being cynical, but there are some very narrow-focus channels, including one that actually films people fishing?????)
Let’s look at the remaining forms.
PBS – Like the BBC. Paid for by sponsorship (not advertising) and by public subscription. Shows mostly educational and documentary programming, with some drama, music, cultural stuff and a small amount of entertainment, usually British sitcoms (but only the old ones);
Networks – offer a range of programming on a national basis. These stations have the clout to finance new shows on a regular basis and to buy up the big sporting events – Superbowl, World Series, heavyweight boxing, etc. Almost all the US shows that have made it to the overseas market over the years, Cheers, Kojak, Trek, even Bonanza and mainstream shows of that sort, started life out as Prime Time Network Shows. The easiest way to look at these is to compare them to the BBC, except that they all have ads. There are currently three big networks, one medium, two baby networks and couple of oddments –
Major Networks – The Big Three –
NBC – The daddy Network, NBC carries the basic mix of entertainment, news, current affairs and sport;
CBS – Same as the above, but a bit more slanted towards entertainment;
ABC – Mainly entertainment with less news, sport, etc than the two above. This network was not doing well, as it was not able to compete with cable in the entertainment stakes, so it was bought out by Disney, and now has exclusive rights to their back catalogue. This gives them cheap family programming and movies and they are picking up again.
Medium Networks –
Fox – This is really a cable station trying to be a network. It shows entertainment shows almost exclusively, apart from the obligatory morning and evening news, and tries to hide its "lightweight" image behind fake-serious shows like "Unsolved Mysteries", "The World’s Greatest Police Chases" and "Roswell: Alien Autopsy". They even go to the extent of employing people like Jonathan Frakes to narrate them.
Fox struggles for ratings (more on this system later) and has been on the verge of collapse for years, but has recently bolstered its finances by launching two cable stations (ironic), "fx" a nostalgia station much like Bravo, and Fox Family (they bought out The Family Channel, which was one of their main rivals, and filled it up with reruns of their own shows ) . Incidentally, viewing figures for TFC have gone DOWN since Fox took them over. The Fox Network’s position is basically maintained by the success of such shows as Hercules and Xena, and the demise of either of these without a suitable replacement would be very serious for Fox.
Baby Networks –
Warner Brothers – The "WB". This is 50% "Kiddy TV" showing children’s programming, ranging from cartoons to young-teen sitcoms such as Sister, Sister, and 50% Teen TV, with shows such as Buffy, Felicity, Dawson’s Creek and Charmed. This line-up reflects a positive decision by WB to aim hard at the younger audience. By doing so, they have certainly cornered a segment of the market, but they have also greatly diminished their appeal to the main demographic group of choice for the advertising lobby – the 20s-40s. This means that the network will never reach beyond its current status, and should the majors ever decide to take their audience from them, they will have a hard time retaining their place in the pecking order.
UPN – The United Paramount Network. This is hardly a network at all. It is the laughing stock of US TV and carries programming ranging from black sitcoms to black sitcoms, with an odd episode of Voyager thrown in for good measure. This is principally a black network. To the majority audience, the shows are all incomprehensible.
I’m not in the least racist, but I’m afraid that black humor just doesn’t make sense to me. They even have their own language now, Ebonics. (Cut me some slack, Blood, and don't be pushing me into no jive. Straight up). Now this seems obsessively focused on the black community and is largely unnecessary. The most popular sitcom show in America (now that Sienfeld’s gone) is Cosby, and the cast speaks in a language everyone can understand.
What UPN effectively did was to attempt to grab an untapped segment of the viewing audience by concentrating on black programming. Unfortunately, all they achieved was to distance themselves from the majority of US TV viewers for the sake of a short-term gain, and now that they have become the Black Network, they are finding it extremely difficult to change their scheduling. The amount of black shows is starting to diminish, but they are already beginning to suffer criticism of groups like the NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) and are finding it difficult to even cancel a show that’s proving to be a dead end. UPN belongs to Paramount, which is currently losing an absolute fortune on the channel ($800 million last year alone). Don’t be surprised if UPN dies within the next few years, especially as the bean counters at Viacom have now taken a more active hand.
Oddments –
PAX – This is really a religious network. It pretends to be entertainment by showing a constant stream of reruns of old feel good shows – Dr. Quinn, Touched by an Angel, Highway to Heaven, Little House on the Prairie, they even run shows like Father Dowling Investigates and The Littlest Hobo. In between, they preach and pray a lot, on the assumption that anyone who tuned in to see Father Dowling might stay for the services after.
Channel 13 – This is an attempt to duplicate the success of CNN on network TV. Supposedly 24 hour news, but really a bit of a washout. Believe it or not, they even have a show that reruns old news broadcasts, supposedly under the umbrella of nostalgia broadcasting, but in my opinion, they just can’t fill their schedule.
Network Affiliates:
Although Networks are supposedly nationwide, even these mighty edifices do not have the resources to build and maintain the studios and equipment necessary to cover every State and County. As a result, they tend to concentrate on the major metropolitan areas, and leave rural coverage to "Affiliates". These are independent stations that carry the programming of their chosen Network in "Prime Time", but have the freedom to show other programming of their own choosing at all other times. In smaller cities such as Orlando, for example, every Network is an affiliate. The nearest actual Network station is in Miami.
Cable Stations.
Cable stations are principally specialist channels that concentrate on one aspect of the entertainment field, either drama, news, documentary, Sci-Fi, Sport, Handicrafts, cooking, etc. They are basically the same as satellite stations in Europe.
Satellite stations.
These are either the same stations as cable, or channels with a very narrow focus and extremely small audiences (some as small as 10,000 viewers).
Prime Time and Syndication.
In order to understand how the system works, you need to know a little about the viewing habits of the average American viewer. To him, there are five basic elements – Earth, Air, Fire, Water and TV. The box must be buzzing along in the background, no matter what he is doing, but only actually watched at certain designated times. (I consider myself to be something of an observer, and I’ve noticed while at friends’ houses, that the TV may be switched on, but they don’t pay it any attention. However, when the commercials come on, they do tend to watch it. How’s that for brainwashing? In my home, the TV is used mostly as a monitor for what’s taping. I never watch broadcast TV. I tape everything and shuttle out the ads. I’m damned if I’m giving up 27% of my valuable time to watch advertising).
For the main Networks, a typical day breaks down like this:
From
To
Type of Programming



0600
0900
Prime Time News
0900
1700
Filler/affiliate programming
1700
1830
Local News
1830
1900
National News
1900
2000
Game shows
2000
2300
Prime Time Programming - new episodes of current shows
2300
0200
Late night talk shows
0200
0600
Overnight programming (old reruns) and/or Infomercials
Networks do not broadcast via affiliates over the weekend, so there is no national programming on Saturday and Sunday, and affiliates are free to take anything they like from syndication. So a Network needs to produce something like only 15 hours of new original programming per week.
Now we need to look at the viewing season, beginning in September:
From
To
Type of Programming



September
early November
New episodes shown in blocks of 6 or 4, split up by reruns
early November
late November
November sweeps (see advertising below)
December
early February
New episodes shown in blocks of 6 or 4, split up by reruns (NB no new shows at Christmas – network executives think no one watches TV over the Holidays)
February

February Sweeps
March
April
New episodes shown in blocks of 6 or 4, split up by reruns
May

May Sweeps
June
September
Off-season – reruns only.
The Reason for it All – Advertising
We curse the number and lengths of the commercial breaks in our shows, and visitors from overseas are amazed at shows with only 6 or 8 minute segments split up by 4 minute commercial breaks. In fact, 16 minutes of every hour is taken up by advertising, and recently, there has been a trend on some of the smaller networks, especially WB and UPN, to edit shows down to increase this to 18 minutes.

If we are to be realistic, however, we should not complain at this seeming intrusion on our viewing pleasure, for without these commercials, there would be no new shows. Regrettably, this tendency towards increasing revenues means not only shorter shows, but also a much more critical oversight of the shows. If audiences begin to fall, the ax is raised, and if producers don’t come up with the goods, the blade can fall with no notice at all. This has led to two recent innovations in the production of TV shows.
The first is the "short first season". A number of new shows have only a 12 or 13 episode first season, just in case they don’t catch on. Examples of this in recent years include Voyager and Hercules, which ran only 16 and 12 episodes respectively (and before anyone tackles me on Voyager Season 1, double –length episodes are always counted as 2, as they will almost certainly be shown as two separate episodes in syndication).
This short first season may seem unfortunate, but it does have a hidden fringe benefit. Scheduling shows for short seasons means that a number of mid-season replacements are needed by spring, when the main series for a particular time-slot runs out of episodes. This means that a number of shows that otherwise wouldn’t have made it onto the air get their chance.
You would think that this would mean a whole slew of second rate shows, but bear in mind that the decision to air a show or not is made by Network Executives and not by fans. These are the same people who canceled Classic Trek, turned down the X-Files when Chris Carter first offered it, and canceled Dr. Quinn: Medicine Woman at the height of its popularity because they thought it was reaching the wrong audience. At the time of its cancellation, this show was the 3rd most popular show in the US, with audiences of well over 20 million viewers. The show that replaced it, "Martial Law" stars a barely coherent, totally unintelligible kick and grunt specialist from Hong Kong named Sammo Hung, a sort of "Wanker – Texas Langer", and has so far drawn audiences of less than half of that for Dr. Quinn.
In reality, this mid-season replacement phenomenon has produced some excellent shows. The highly successful 3rd Rock from the Sun was such a mid-season replacement, having been turned down by all the big 3, and in its second season, this show unseated Kelsey Grammar from his #1 position at the Emmys.
The second effect is to shorten initial contract periods. The norm used to be a 5-year contract, usually guaranteeing at least 5 seasons, with options for 7. Now, however, actors are usually just signed for a period of time, during which an unspecified number of episodes will be made. At the end of this period, they are free to refuse to sign on if they have received a better offer in the interim, resulting in some odd casting changes. Just look at Sliders for example – virtually 3 complete changes of cast in 5 seasons and Earth: Final Conflict, which is about to go into its 3rd season with its 3rd leading actor.
A New Broom "Sweeps" Clean
The table above mentions something called "sweeps". This is an odd phenomenon and unique to the USA. Only a Network Executive could think up this little gem, probably because Networks take the bulk of the high-value advertising, with mostly local stuff going to affiliates and high-volume, low cost ads ending up on the cable stations.
Rates for advertising are based entirely on viewing figures, and these are set at certain predetermined times of the year, so it’s important that the networks do well at those times. Rates for pre-Christmas advertising are set in November, for Easter in February and the basic rate for the following year is set in May. As rates are based on overall figures throughout the period under examination it doesn’t matter what individual shows achieve, as long as the total is up, so every network tries to boost its viewing figures during those months by showing specials (Merlin, Ulysses, mini-series (this is where North and South, Shogun, etc come from [not to mention the new "Dune" mini-series planned for next year]) and not only new episodes of current series, but the best new episodes at that (TNG: Best of Both Worlds, DS9: Inferno’s Light/Purgatory’s Shadow, Voyager: Dark Frontier ) . In other words, May is the month to watch TV, followed by February and November. The rest of the year is mediocre by comparison.
And now for a few sidelines.
Affiliation
Now how did we get to here? Oh Yes! So that’s Prime Time. Now Affiliation is something different.
Outside the Network times, Affiliates are allowed to buy their own programming from anyone, even rival networks, and show their own advertising, so they act like a miniature copy of all that has gone before. Many of them buy old shows from other networks (TNG reruns), or new shows from later seasons of existing series that have been sidelined by their parent networks (DS9, for example). This is why DS9 was, in some cases, producing much larger audiences than Voyager, but has a lower rating.
Syndication
When a show has enough episodes, it is thrown open to buyers from any station – rival Network, Affiliate or even Cable. Affiliates still show new episodes weekly, in line with the guidelines laid down by the Network, but older seasons are run daily, in constant rotation. As will be explained later, this is where the real money is to be made.
Ratings
Ratings are what make the world go round, as far as US TV is concerned. You will see that a certain show had a 7 share, or a rating of 0.9, or that it is 1st in its slot. This is simple. The first two are simply a proportion of the viewing audience at that time, based on a really odd system established by the Nielsen Company, whereas the latter is a position in the pecking order for that time slot.
Let’s take Voyager and DS9 as the obvious examples.
Voyager is a network show, shown at one time only, once per week (actually twice, but the reprise doesn’t count towards the main rating) everywhere that the Network has an affiliate. It produces results that suggest it is doing far better than it really is. It has a 12 share (12% of the audience at that time – see table below), is usually 3rd or 4th in its slot, and is considered to be the jewel in the crown of UPN.
DS9 is a syndicated show, meaning that affiliates can buy it or not, and show it in whatever slot they like. It is not shown at one time nationwide, and in order to see its figures, you have to add the figures for every affiliate that shows it. As a result, and bearing in mind that not every affiliate buys it, it has a smaller audience. However, it regularly produces audiences aggregating to double that of Voyager.
Also bear in mind that Paramount is paid a hundred times or more for DS9, whereas they only get an income from advertising for Voyager. With this in mind, don’t you ask yourself why they are canceling DS9? Well, believe it or not, there is more money to be made from canceling the show than from keeping it going. To find out why, read on.
Winston Churchill said: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics!" I would add an extra one "Lies, damned lies, statistics, and advertising!" There is no "Trade Descriptions Act" in the USA, so advertisers are virtually free to say what they like. The only recourse a disgruntled customer or client has is to litigation, which is why America is "Sue Happy!" Here, if an advertiser claims that you can buy a new car for $99:00 a month, and you're stupid enough not to ask for precise payment details, then you will find that you pay $99:00 a month all right, for the first three months, and thereafter, not only does the payment go back up to the $350:00 a month it should have been in the first place, but they also add on the $251:00 a month that you didn't pay in your first three months. When you protest, they draw your attention to the 1 micron sized writing on page 615 of the combined purchase contract, brochure, and technical manual, between the map of how to get to the nearest service depot in Turkey, and an advertisement for simulated Yak skin seat covers, and inform you that you should have read the fine print. Then you're on your own.
The upshot of this is that when Paramount claims that "Voyager is drawing unprecedented audiences" or "Voyager is the most successful program in its category", they fail to inform you that it is drawing unprecedented audiences in Albania, where it is the only program being shown in color, or that it has been placed in the same category as "Elmer J.B. Chickenshit the Third's Weekly Report on insect fertility from the Upper Reaches of the Amazon" and "The Antarctic Weather Report", on the grounds that the programs are all concerned with the exploration of previously unknown territory.
In the same breath, they criticize DS9's performance, claiming that it has been losing audience share since half way through season 5 and has shown "disappointing" audience loyalty so far this season. They fail to mention that they themselves withdrew the show from 152 affiliate stations across the country in favor of "America's Greatest Pets" (would you believe it?) and that they moved it from its traditional comfortable Thursday night slot to Saturday nights, a notorious graveyard for adventure shows. Saturday is movie and sports night on US TV.
This justifies their decision to scrap DS9 and continue Voyager. But consider the following:
Item
Voyager
DS9
Remarks




Time Shown
Wednesday 9:00pm
Saturday
This justifies their decision to scrap DS9 and continue Voyager. But consider the following:
Item
Voyager
DS9
Remarks




Time Shown
Wednesday 9:00pm
Saturday 8:00pm
The US TV audience has specific habits. Weekdays are for comedy and adventure series; weekends are for movies, sport and religion. Weekend TV is heavily populated with feel-good shows, such as Early Edition, Touched by an Angel, Dr. Quinn, and Promised Land, all of which involve some goody two-shoes happening across somebody in deep shit and digging them out. Wonderful concept, but life just isn’t like that. So, Voyager enjoys a traditional weekday slot for an adventure/Sci-Fi series, and DS9 sits out of place on Saturday night, like a pork sausage at a Jewish wedding.
Shown against
World’s most amazing videos;
60 Minutes (current affairs);
Live from Lincoln Center (classical concert);
Drew Carey (old sitcom reruns);
Frontline (current affairs);
Charmed;
Dr. Quinn reruns;
Two old movies.
The Pretender (current network top show – audiences of over 100 million);
Martial Law (new kick and grunt series);
2 movie premieres;
Acapulco Heat (new Cop series);
Earth: Final Conflict;
Early Edition (top feel-good show);
Regional Basketball knockout competition.
Shows in bold italics are the top shows in their genre;
Slot Position last week
5th
3rd
Voyager even lost out to a rerun of "The Mask" which has been on TV at least 10 times before.
Overall weekly position
around 100th
around 40th

Audience size according to Paramount
28 million
19 million
Bias? - Figures based on "audience projection", whatever that is.
Audience size according to Nielsen (commercial ratings company)
16.5 million
31 million
Completely unbiased - their reputation depends on it - figures based on "Market Research!"
Encore Presentation
Sunday 8:00pm
Sunday 7:00pm
Most stations air prime shows twice each week, usually once on a weeknight and once late at night at the weekend. This catches a different audience. DS9 used to air Thursday and Saturday nights.
Shown against
The Simpsons;
You Bet Your Life (game show);
The Story of Golf (documentary);
Sister, Sister ( old and fading sitcom);
What? Karaoke? (Idiots make fools of themselves);
Touched by an angel (3rd rated feel-good show);
Dark Skies (reruns)
Movie Premiere (big movie of the week, and the second half of it at that);
Barbara Walters (top rated interview show);
7th Heaven (No.1 network feel-good show);
Friends (USA’s top sitcom – audiences of 30 million+);
Space: Above & Beyond (reruns);
NHL Hockey.

Slot Position
7th
4th
Only "The Story of Golf" had a lower audience than Voyager. Only "Friends", "7th Heaven" and the TV premiere of "As Good as it Gets" beat DS9.
Average weekly position
Around 150th
Around 80th
So DS9’s rerun was higher placed than Voyager’s premiere.
Audience size according to Paramount
21 million
11 million

Audience size according to Nielsen (commercial ratings company)
8.5 million
13 million





Conclusion
Voyager is placed where it has the least competition, and still it fails to rise above 100th position for the week. Even "Dark Frontier" only reached 81st, despite blanket advertising.
Despite
Conclusion
Voyager is placed where it has the least competition, and still it fails to rise above 100th position for the week. Even "Dark Frontier" only reached 81st, despite blanket advertising.
Despite being placed in a totally incongruous slot, against some of the most popular shows on TV, DS9 holds its own and produces perfectly good results. Even it’s encore presentation (which takes place 8 days later, not the Sunday immediately following the first airing) does almost as well as, if not better than, Voyager’s first showing.
Paramount is twisting the figures and "interpreting the data" through their teeth.
And why are they doing this?
The great God! --Money!
The cast and crew of an average series sign what is known as a 13-3-5 contract. They sign on for 13 episodes initially, with an option to quit at that time, (Denise Crosby - Tasha Yar - left TNG after 14 episodes {she stayed one extra episode at Gene Roddenberry's request, as it had been specially written for her character}) or to sign on to complete 3 seasons, if the first half season is successful.
At the end of season 3, they sign on for two more seasons, completing the usual five. Not every show runs to more than five season, but there have been some notable exception; Murder, She Wrote - 16 seasons; Magnum - 11; Mash - 13, to name but a few. At the end of season five, it is traditional for cast members to become "free agents", that is they can renegotiate their own contracts and payment, and this is where salaries start to rocket.
Take TNG. Seasons 1-5, Patrick Stewart received $150,000 per episode. Season 6, $450,000. Season 7 $750,000, and it was rumored that if the series ran to an eighth season, he would have been asking $1M per episode.
DS9 suffered the same fate to a certain extent. Terry Farrel actually left the series because among other things, they wouldn't take her seriously, both artistically as far as the character was concerned, but also on salary. Both Michael Dorn and Avery Brooks held out for more money for season 7 - and got it.
Now, you may say "What does it matter how much they are paid, if the shows make money?" That would be fine, if it were that simple, but in fact, most shows don't show much of a profit while they are still in network runs. The real money to be made is in syndication, when a Network can sell its shows to fifty or more other stations, to be shown as and when they like. Let's say a typical episode of an average series costs $3M to make. Between the two showings, the producers probably just about recoup their outlay in advertising revenues, but by the time you add on marketing costs, an element of loss of revenue for preview time, etc, the show probably loses money.
If the show is popular enough, then it goes on for the expected five seasons, and at the point when it reaches the magic number of 100 episodes, they can put it out to syndication, at, say $100,000 per episode for first run rights, and $40,000 per showing for rerun rights. That's damned cheap programming for the syndicated stations, as they can recoup their $100,000 for one ad. If you sell it to fifty stations, then each episode brings in an additional $5M dollars for first run alone, and believe me, syndicates do not run a program once.
Now that's where the money is, hence the incentive for companies like Paramount to pay their people higher rates for later seasons. However, there is a point at which a series becomes top heavy, especially when you consider that in order for most stations to acquire a particular show, they must stump up the first run money up front, and they are usually committed to buying the entire run. This means that they expect to pay anything up to $11-12M for a show, but by the time you're up to 7 seasons, you're talking about $18-20M, which is fine for a big city station, but a lot for a tiny local station.
This means that even after a show dies, the money continues to roll in. Classic Trek was still being shown on over 100 stations until the contracts ran out last year, and then the Sci-Fi Channel optioned it for 4 years. Considering that the average budget for a Classic Trek episode was $150,000, you can imagine how the executives at Paramount are rubbing their hands together now.
So, when TNG, and then DS9 reached seven seasons, not only was there no pressure to renew, but there even had to be a DAMNED GOOD REASON why they should.
This is made even worse in the case of Trek franchises. Trek is the most heavily merchandised show in history, and you wouldn't believe just how many ten and hundreds of millions, billions even, that Paramount makes from licensing products, books, posters, collectibles, action figures, models, etc. In fact, this income far outweighs the profits from the shows, and as this will be largely unaffected by the loss of a show such as DS9, they really couldn't care less. As long as the entity that is Star Trek continues, that's all that counts.
With DS9 already past the kill barrier, it is important for Paramount to promote Voyager at all costs, not just for the sake of Voyager, but so that the Trek franchise as a whole remains in the public eye. Ultimately, it is therefore unlikely that Voyager will be canceled before it reaches its 7th season, or a replacement is produced, but that is entirely as a result of the need for merchandising, and has nothing to do with the popularity or the quality of the show.
The controversy about renewal is just chaff. It's thrown up to deceive the system, and to draw attention; in other words, it's little more than a publicity stunt. They wouldn't cancel a show during its main run if the entire cast were nibbled to death by an outraged wildebeest. And one further thing to consider; this being the case, do you seriously think that Paramount will allow more than one or two years at most to pass by without a new incarnation of Trek to keep the money rolling in?
I think not. However, the point of all this is, don't ever believe what a TV Network tells you. If it makes money, they'll tell you that the Pacific is red and then pay someone to dump food coloring into it.
As far as waiting a year for new episodes in the overseas market is concerned, I know that Paramount has a standing policy that forbids shows to even be aired in other countries for at least eight months after the US air date, and video releases in those countries not contracted to show the current series suffer the same restriction. I may be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.
So where does this leave us?
Basically, it leaves us up the creek without a paddle. Fan campaigns may have had their effect in the past, but they won’t work today. The fate of our favorite TV shows is entirely in the hands of "the advertising chain":
A Producer thinks up an idea for a show
¯
A Studio Exec thinks it will draw an audience, so a short run of episodes is made
¯
Advertising Buyers think that the projected audience figures are good enough
So they buy airtime on this show
¯
If it gets the audience figures, it is renewed for future seasons
¯
If it makes 100 episodes, it is sold into syndication

At no point in this plan is the fan base taken into consideration. Indeed, they are largely discounted, because the Networks know that loyal fans will hang on no matter what happens, so they tend to concentrate on what will bring in the borderline audience. This is why shows are shuffled around the schedule, pre-empted for any show or event felt to be more lucrative at the time, and generally treated like sacks of coal.
In the final analysis, no one appears to know less about TV audiences and tastes than Networks Executives do. Sadly, the power lies 100% in their hands, and they are deaf, dumb and blind as far as the fan base is concerned.
If you want your favorite show to survive, just pray that it sells toothpaste, or it will end up being shown at 3.00am on a Tuesday, or even worse, sold off to the Sci-Fi Channel to be shelved and brought out for an occasional airing alongside such other unfortunates as Alien Nation and American Gothic.
It is a sad conclusion to draw, but as fans, we matter not one jot in the great scheme of things that is the mystery of Network TV, and we better get used to it.

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